隧道施工风险敏感型决策支持系统.docVIP

Risk-sensitive decision support system for tunnel construction Comprehensive and realistic tunneling plans must strive for optimal decisions that minimize time and cost while addressing important factors such as geologic uncertainty and variability,uncertainty in tunneling productivity , and the contractor’s risk sensitivity . This paper presents a computerized decision support system that incorporates all important tunneling risks. It consists of three interrelated models: the probabilistic geologic prediction model , the probabilistic tunnel cost estimating model , and the risk-sensitive dynamic decision model. The probabilistic geologic prediction model uses all available geologic information to characterize geologic uncertainty and variability along the tunnel profile in the probabilistic from of ground class transitions. The probabilistic tunnel cost estimating model evaluates tunneling time and cost performances for applying different excavation and support methods to different prevailing ground conditions by using Monte Carlo simulation to actual tunneling operations . 概率隧道成本估算模型评估隧穿时间和成本表现为利用蒙特卡罗模拟实际施工操作不同的开挖和支方法应用到不同的地面条件。这两个模型提供了对风险敏感的动态决策模型系统核心的主要输入，可用项目信息和承包商的风险敏感度确定最优开挖与支护顺序和相应的风险调整后的隧道项目成本。’s risk sensitivity (risk preference) is influenced by several factors, especially that person’s current net asset position. Typically, as a person’s net position increase, the less risk-averse their behavior toward the same risk. A contractor’s risk aversion and its degree of risk exposure can have a major influence on construction decisions and the necessary amount of risk premium or contingency embedded in a contractor’s price in order to undertake the work. A more risk-averse contractor adopts a more conservative plan and includes a higher allowance as contingencies in his bid than a less risk-averse contractor does (Ioannou 1988). Thus, it is necessary to incorporate risk sensitivity into tunneling decisions. By considering all above factors, tunn