[经管营销]基于系统动力学的浙江省可持续发展能力研究.doc

摘 要 近二十年来，浙江省的经济迅猛发展，但省内自然资源短缺是目前无法回避的问题：人均淡水用量、耕地面积、森林覆盖率和草地资源均不到世界平均水平的六分之一，加之每年由于洪水泛滥、干旱、泥石流崩塌、地震等自然灾害造成的直接损失1000亿元 本文的创新点为：对于很难通过模型直接求解的浙江省可持续发展能力系统，引入仿真手段构建因果反馈流图，并验证了其反馈模型的合理性和有效性；另外将该复杂系统降阶为六个子系统，通过各个子系统的平衡来达到总系统的平衡。 由于研究能力有限，本文偏重于研究重工业增加值对省内生产总值的影响，可能影响研究结果；其次并未对系统动力学模型内部结构与实际情况的耦合度进行非常精准的检验，对于各项参数比例的估计还有待精准。 ABSTRACT Nearly 20 years, with the rapid economic development ，Zhejiang Province continues to have an unavoidable problem of the natural resources shortage。Such as per capita consumption of fresh water, arable land, forest cover and grassland resource in the province are all less than one-sixth of the world average. Collapse due to floods, drought, mudslides, earthquakes and other natural disasters annually caused by more than 100 billion yuan of direct economic losses. Now the contradictions between economic development and environmental pollution are increasingly serious. Therefore,it is theoretical and practical for Zhejiang Province to search for scientific and effective management ideas to solve the shortage of resources and the contradictions between environmental pollution and economic development . Be based on theory of sustainable development at home and abroad , in this article we clearly set out the overall objective for Zhejiang Province to achieve sustainable development; Secondly , refering to the domestic and foreign research on the sustainable development index selection and considering of the reality of economic development and resources shortage in Zhejiang Province, the article divides the total sustainable development system into six submodule of demographic, economic, resource, environment, science and education, then it constructs a four- hierarchy system consisting of target , system, status, and variable. Also the paper demonstrates of the feasibility of system dynamics on system simulation research of sustainable development. Thirdly，We choose System Dynamics method and use simulation software Vensim PLE to analyze the