[]计划与决策.pptVIP

Prentice Hall, 2001 Chapter 1 第二章 计划与决策 本章内容 第一节 管理与决策 第二节 决策过程与影响因素 第三节 决策方法 第四节 计划的含义、作用与种类 第五节 计划工作的程序 第六节 计划的前提条件及其预测 决策的概念 所谓决策是指组织或个人为了实现某种目标而对未来一定时期内有关活动的方向、内容及方式的选择或调整过程。 群体决策的优缺点 更多信息 更多选项 可接受性 更具合法性 需要更长的决策时间 专家意见的控制 一致的压力 责任不清 群体决策方法 德尔菲法 识别机会 偷鸡者 磨砺斧子 磨砺斧子 故事告诉我们的哲理是什么？ 计划工作的程序 第七节 计划方法 用计量经济学方法解决实际问题的程序如下： 1.因素分析 2.建立模型 3.参数估计 4.实际应用 3、PERT网络分析法 ⑴含义：PERT(计划评审技术）网络是一种类似流程图的网络图，它标出了各项活动间的先后次序和完成时间，从而可使管理者借助PERT网络图找出完成计划目标活动的关键路径，以便比较各种不同方案在进度和成本方面的效果。 ⑵步骤： 确定达到目标所需进行的活动 确定每一活动的先后顺序和各自耗费的时间 绘制PERT网络图 找出关键路径，即完成活动时间最短的路径 建筑房屋事件描述 采用网络计划方法的缺点 The Big Five model of personality offers a comprehensive framework for identifying personality dimensions. The dimension of extroversion captures one’s comfort level with relationships. Extroverts tend to maintain a large number of relationships. Introverts tend to be reserved and have fewer relationships. The dimension of agreeableness refers to a person’s propensity to defer to others. People high in this dimension value harmony more than having their own way. People low in this dimension focus on their own needs more than on the needs of others. The dimension of conscientiousness refers to the number of goals on which a person focuses. Those high in this dimension pursue fewer goals and tend to be responsible, persistent, and achievement-oriented. Those low in this dimension tend to be more easily distracted, less focused, and more hedonistic. Emotional-stability refers a person’s ability to withstand stress. People high on this dimension tend to be calm, enthusiastic, and secure. Those low in this dimension tend to be anxious, nervous, and insecure. Openness to experience refers to one’s range of interests. Those high in this dimension are fascinated by imaginative, creative, and intellectual. Those low in this dimension tend to be more conventional and prefer the familiar. The Job Characteristics Model (JCM