国际会议报告英文IAME2008.ppt

The Newsboy Problem Ferry Companies Have with agencies Authors: Xiaobing LIU Zhongkai LI* Contents Problem Formulation Why use agencies Aggressive agencies Formulation A Near-Optimal Solution The probability distribution of arrivals Approximation Result An information system solution 1 Problem Formulation The Classical Newsboy Problem How many newspapers should to be bought before the actual number of buyers is known? The Extended Newsboy Problem (1) Objective function (2) Supplies or products (3) Dispose of excess product (4) Multi-period … 1.1 Why use agencies The Extended Newsboy Problem in the Dalianwan New Harbour Service Company (DNHS) in Dalian, China Agencies and Ticketing business DNHS Location Market Share DNHS - Agencies 1.2 Aggressive agencies The Problem April 1, 2008, 08:30 A agency printed 10 tickets April 2, 2008, 11:00 All tickets sold out in the central office April 2, 2008, 12:00 5 passengers came to the central office There are no available tickets April 2, 2008, 12:30 5 were returned, other 5 were used April 2, 2008, 13:30 The ship left port with 5 vacancies The Agency’s Profit and loss To the agency: Fine = 5 × price × 5% Gain = 5 × price ×10% To the ferry company: Loss = 5 * price * 95% 1.3 Problem Formulation Ni =(p-q)x’i+p(Ci -x’i)=pCi -q x’i x’i Number of excess tickets distributed to agencies Ni Incomings p Normal price of the class of tickets q Cost of each ticket issued by an agency Ci Number of available tickets 2 A Near-Optimal Solution The Expected Value of xi Number of passengers arriving at the central office A Regressive Approach ti Time of (i+1)th time to distribute tickets 2.1 The Probability Distribution of arrivals 2.1 The Probability Distribution of arrivals 2.1 The Probability Distribution of arrivals the rich historical data should be used selectively very bad weather the Chinese Spring Festival (CSF) 2.2 Approximation Resultby Historical Data 2.3 An Information System so