Macroeconomic Policy An Appraisal宏观经济政策评估.pdfVIP

This PDF is a selection from an out-of-print volume from the National Bureau of Economic Research Volume Title: Rational Expectations and Economic Policy Volume Author/Editor: Stanley Fischer, editor Volume Publisher: University of Chicago Press Volume ISBN: 0-226-25134-9 Volume URL: /books/fisc80-1 Publication Date: 1980 Chapter Title: Macroeconomic Policy, 1971-75: An Appraisal Chapter Author: William Poole Chapter URL: /chapters/c6267 Chapter pages in book: (p. 269 - 284) 9 Macroeconomic Policy, 1971-75: AnAppraisal William Poole I was invited to examine the macroeconomic policy of 1973-75, but limiting the analysisto those years runs the risk that the major lessons of this period willbe lost. Sincethe events of 1973-75 cannotbe under- stood without reference to the highly expansionary policies of 1972and the disruptive impact of the wage-price controls introduced in August 1971,Ihave taken the liberty of redefiningmy topic. The controversy over policy in this period centers on monetary policy in 1974. In the first major section of the paper I sketch the policy activists’ position on this controversy-the position that the oil price shock should have been accommodated by extra monetary expan- sion. The next section of the paper contains three subsections in which Iprovide my thoughts on the monetary, fiscal, and price control policies of the 1971-75 period. The final section contains some general observa- tions on thelessons of the period. TheActivists’View of 1973-75 Since this paper might have carried the title, “The Case against the Case against Macro Policy in 1973-75,” I might as well begin my dis- cussion by outlining what I understand to be the typical activist posi- tion on macroeconomic policy for 1973-75. Hoping to use areasonably neutral and descriptive term, I have called this position “activist” rather than “conventional” or “Keynesian,” but a