医院药品存货管理决策-gebrc.pdf

理 139 理 An Interactive Decision Support Using Multiple Models : The Hospital Drugs Management for Inventory Level 李 Jiunn-Min Lee Yi-Fan Chang 理 Institute of Information Management Fu-Jen Catholic University Taipei, Taiwan, R.O.C 療料療 30~40% 80% 療 略 都 不 理降 不 降 數 滑( GL Shoesmith et al.,2001) 列 數 滑 (order)行 量 識 (knowledge base) 立度 料 (data warehouse) 歷 料 行 聯 理(online analysis process, OLAP) (s, S) 略來 VB ( Visual Basic) SQL2000 Excel 立 量 精度 降 識料 140 論 年六 Abstract Generally speaking, the cost percentage for purchasing the medication and the medical material related to the total cost for operating a hospital is 30~40%. For the purchasing cost, the medication’s cost occupies 80% more. Unfortunately, medical institutes usually neglect the drug inventory management and literature review shows that all institutes only use a class of complicated forecasting models. For example, GL Shoesmith JP Pinder (2001) compared demand forecasts computed using several forecasting models and showed that the techniques using exponential smoothing and seasonal decomposition was effective in improving forecast accuracy and reducing inventory costs. But these techniques do not consider the important factor for individual medication’s characteristics and also lack an appropriate analytic tool to reduce the ordering and holding cost. In this study, characteristics of medications’ demands are included, several forecasting models can t