山棕寮地滑地降雨警戒基准值之订定-中华水土保持学会.PDF

社團法人中華水土保持學會 102 年度年會 1 山棕寮地滑地降雨警戒基準值之訂定 許中立 [1] 蔡欣穎[2*] 摘 要 臺東縣池上鄉山棕寮地區位於海岸山脈之東側，屬利吉層泥岩地區，遇水易軟化崩解，出 露地表易受雨水沖蝕而形成惡地地形。該區於 2000 年象神颱風來襲時，造成大面積的滑動現象。本 文係以山棕寮地滑地為試驗區，建置相關之坡地監測設施及定期觀測。利用於 2011 年研究所得出之 暴雨迴歸公式進行今年天兔颱風來襲時，預測降雨量之於地下水位之變化。結果發現，暴雨迴歸分析 得出之預測結果與實際水位變化之結果相符，因此該區之降雨警戒基準值依舊維持先前設定之累積降 雨量達200mm 時F.S.值即達到 1.20 警戒限度；累積降雨量達390mm 時F.S.值即達到 1.10疏散 撤離級別；當累積降雨量達490mm 時F.S.值即達到 1.0 高破壞潛勢級別 。 關鍵詞：監測 、暴雨頻率、最大日降雨量、警戒基準值。 A Study of Provide for Rainfall Warning Threshold Value on Shazongliao Landslide Area Chung-Li Hsu [1] Hsin-Ying Tsai [2*] ABSTRACT Shazongliao region is located of the east coastal mountains in Taitung, Taiwan, which belong to Liji mudstone area. When it encounter water will easy to cause soften and erosion. Outcropping vulnerable to rainfall erosion and the formation badlands terrain. In 2000, when typhoon XANGSANE atrack this area cause large landslide. In 2011 study work out rainstorm regression formula used for typhoon Usagi this year, the forecast of rainfall changes in the water table. It was found that heavy rains forecast regression analysis results are in agreement with the results of the actual water level changes and therefore the area of rainfall warning value still remain keep at the experimental site reached the warning stage and the evacuation stage when rainfall amount reached when rainfall amount reached 200mm. and 400mm respectively. There was a high failure potential and unstable condition in the experimental site when rainfall amount reached 500mm. 一、前 言 臺灣地質構造破碎、地震頻繁，加上山多平地少、地形陡峭、溪流短促、高溫多雨、降雨集中等 特性，致使山區土層極易發生崩落、地滑、土石流等災害尤其東部泥岩地區之地層可分為表土及崩積 岩屑層、風化破碎岩礫、凝灰質砂土固結層及泥岩層等，所以降雨易入滲而積聚於下層之泥岩不透水 層上，形成弱面，而造成崩塌。又臺東海岸山脈泥岩地區之崩塌或滑動，和地下水有直接之關聯，為 避免地下水之長期浸泡及孔隙水壓力之作用，排除地下水及地表水為穩定崩塌地的首要之務（陳信雄， 19