坡面型土石流地形判释分析模式.pdfVIP

中華水土保持學報, 47(2):95-103 (2016) 95 Journal of Chinese Soil and Water Conservation, 47(2):95-103(2016) 坡面型土石流地形判釋分析模式 * 陳天健 羅元勳 楊婉君 陳柏龍 摘 要 坡面型土石流災害常在劇烈降雨下出現在聚落周邊山坡，對山區居民安全影響甚大。為能事前掌 握坡面型土石流發生潛勢地區，提升防災及預警工作，本文採用莫拉克颱風高屏溪流域之事件共80 處，萃取 地形特性因子，進行坡面型土石流與崩塌坡面之判釋模式研究。費雪區別分析結果顯示以下述 7 項因子，包 括有效集水區指標、流動段平均坡度、形狀係數比、流動區深寬比、發生區平均寬度、坡面平均坡度比及崩 塌潛感面積等，所建立的坡面型土石流判釋模式，可得最佳正判率達90% 。期應用此判釋模式能事前掌握坡 面型土石流潛勢地區，提升防災及預警工作。 關鍵詞：坡面型土石流、崩塌、區別分析、判釋模式。 Topographic Recognition Model on Hillslope Type Debris Flow and Landslide * Tien-Chien Chen Yuan-Xun Luo Wang-Chun Yang Bo-Long Chen ABSTRACT Hillslope type Debris Flows (HDFs) often occur at the heritage in mountain areas, causing the serious impact to residents. However, the topography of HDF and shallow landslide is quite similar thus difficult to distinguish. This study proposal a HDF topographic recognition model based on the FISHER discrimination methodusing40 HDFs and 40 landslides induced by Typhoon Morakot in Kaoping River, Taiwan.The topographic recognition model consists of 7 va- riables, including effective watershed area index, average channel gradient of the transport segment, form factor rate, depression ratio of the transport segment, average width of the initia- tion segment, and average gradient of watershed, and its classification rate reached 90%. It is expected that the recognition mode will improve the slope disaster prevention of HDF type. Key Words :Hillslope type debris flow, landslide, discriminate method, recognition model. 一、前 言