全球核电市场展望2030-2050.pdfVIP

Nuclear worldwide: Where we stand 3 years after Fukushima study on the 2030-2050 global nuclear market – Lessons learned The global nuclear market continues to grow, driven mainly by Russia and China Since Fukushima (March 2011) and despite decisions in some countries to phase out nuclear energy in the short or long term – About 70 reactors are currently under construction around the world in 2014, half of them in China and Russia – Installed base decreased by only 9 units: +13 new operations, +2 restarts and -24 shutdown, of which 16 were driven by the disaster and 8 were at the end of their operating lifecycles The Roland Berger study shows that global nuclear installed capacity could increase 26% by 2030 in a low scenario (from 435 units today to 489 units, or 372 GW vs. 470 GW) Roland Berger estimates that of 581 nuclear projects planned or announced and assuming highly favorable circumstances, only 123 to 224 are likely to materialize The nuclear market is at a crossroads: By 2030, 70% of nuclear reactors will be between 40 and 60 years old, and governments will have to decide whether to renew or make a transition – Regarding nuclear powers lifecycle (decisions, construction, commissioning), the 2015-2030 period is a critical time for the replacement market – Successful players will have current experience in the construction of new plants, suitable product portfolios and strong financial backing The Roland Berger study shows that in 2050, assuming a conservative case, nuclears share of global electricity capacity may be lower than in 2030 (by approx. 1%). However, installed capacity may increase by 35 GW. These assumptions depend on both the replacement rates in major nuclear countries (France, Russia and possibly the United States) and nuclear development by new entrants (Middle East or Asian countries)