全球煤炭供需趋势.pdfVIP

RECENT T RENDS IN DEMAND AND S UPPLY 1. RECENT TRENDS IN DEMAND AND SUPPLY Summary • Coal was the fastest growing fossil fuel in absolute and relative terms in 2012. Approximately 29% of global primary energy consumption derives from coal. Coal strengthened its position as the second-largest primary energy source, behind oil. • Global coal consumption grew by 2.3%, from 7 527 million tonnes (Mt) in 2011 to an estimated 7 697 Mt in 2012. Although coal demand increased by 170 Mt, demand growth was the third- lowest on record over the last ten years. • China w as o nce a gain t he g rowth e ngine o f g lobal c oal de mand. In 2012, China posted the second-lowest demand growth (4.7%) since 2001. Nevertheless, coal consumption increased by 165 Mt, to an estimated 3 678 Mt. • Measured in energy units, China alone accounted for more than 50% of global coal demand in 2012. Total 2012 Chinese coal consumption was roughly equal to total coal demand of the United States since 2009, Japan since 1993 and Germany since 1990. Put differently, China consumes over four times more thermal coal and almost ten times more metallurgical coal (met coal), than the world’s two largest consumers, the United States (thermal coal) and Russia (met coal). • In 2012, coal demand in the United States decreased1 by 98 Mt – the second-strongest decline ever in the country. Due to the mild winter, low gas prices and plant retirements, coal-fired generation decreased by 235 terawatt hours (TWh) in 2012, while coal demand plummeted to an estimated 822 Mt. • Coal c onsumption increased in Organisation f or Economic C o-operation a nd D evelopment (OECD) Europe (+17 Mt) a nd O ECD A sia O ceania countries (+12 Mt) in 2012. Demand was the highest ever in OECD Asia Oceania (467 Mt) and the highest since 2008 in OECD Europe (810 Mt).