应对能源和气候变化挑战的政策导向型研究.pdf

应对能源和气候变化挑战：政策导向型研究 Coping with Energy Challenge and Climate Change: Policy-oriented Research Beijing, 19 September 2014 1 报告提纲(Outline) 1 政策研究背景：未来排放的峰值判断 Research Background: Chinas Emissions Peak 2 排放峰值管理面临的挑战 Challenges for Cap Management 3 生态文明制度建设与峰值管理研究 Institutional Arrangements of Ecological Civilization for Cap Management 2 经济社会发展与资源环境问题的考虑因素(1) Comprehensive factors for socio-economic development and resource/emissions scenarios (1)  国内因素 Domestic 经济发展：人口增长、工业化、城市化、经济安全、新常态 Economic development: population, industrialization, urbanization, economic security, the new economic normal 社会进步：社会共识、立法进程、就业、地区差距、社会稳定 Social progress: consensus, legislation process, employment, regional disparity, social stability 环境保护：资源能源供应安全，灰霾、水污染、土壤修复，碳减缓、适应 Environmental protection: supply of resource/energy, haze/PM2.5, water pollution, soil restoration, mitigation and adaptation 技术创新与竞争力 Innovation and competitiveness 适应快速的数量和结构变化：产业结构，中等收入，劳动年龄人口供给等 Fit into with the rapid changes in both scale and structure 实践经验：“十一五”、 “十二五”规划节能减排与低碳试点 Experience during 11th and 12th FYPs on energy efficiency and low carbon pilot 经济社会发展与资源环境问题考虑因素(2) Comprehensive factors for socio-economic development and resource/emissions scenarios (2)  国际因素International aspect 减缓和适应义务mitigation and adaptation obligations 增长贡献：经济复苏、国际分工与产业链 Growth contributions: economic restoration, intern’l labor division and industrial chains 国际绿色经济与转型经验 International experience and lessons on green economy and transformation 全球合作Gl