Lecture-1-Probability-概率论.pptVIP

Independent Events * Multiplicative Law of Probability * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * The number of permutations is P4,10 10(9)(8)(7) = 5040 That is, the professor could give 5040 different four-question exams without using the same assignment of graders to questions, by which time all the teaching assistants would hopefully have finished their degree programs! * * * * * * * Probability: Review * Definitions * Probability refers to the study of randomness and uncertainty In probability theory we can make inferences about a population based on its distribution to quantify the chances, or likelihoods, associated with various outcomes In science and Engineering: The probability of a good part being produced The reliability of a new machine (reliabilities are actually probabilities) Definitions * Random Process - Any process whose possible results are and its actual results cannot be predicted with certainty in advance Outcome - Each possible result for a random process. Experiment - process by which an observation or measurement is obtained. Sample space - the set of all possible outcomes in an experiment Definitions * Event - any collection (or subset) of outcomes contained in the sample space. Simple Event - an event that cannot be decomposed, one outcome of the experiment or in the sample space. Compound Event - collection of specified outcomes contained in the sample space. Null Event (?): An event with no outcomes. Example: Number of days with a high temperature over 150 degrees F. Examples Toss a coin. The sample space is {H,T}. The event of ‘head’ is {H}. Toss a coin twice. The sample space is {HH, HT,TH,TT}. The event of getting exactly one head is {HT, TH}. Battery failures. If a new type D flashlight battery has a voltage that is outside certain limits, that battery is characterized as a failure (F); if the battery has a voltage within the prescribed limits, it is a success (S). Suppose the experiment consists of testing each ba