交通流量悖论与拥堵定价经济学分析-InternationalAssociationfor.PDF

Paradoxes of Traffic Flow and Economics of Congestion Pricing 交通流量悖论与 拥堵定价经济学分析 Shunfeng Song (宋顺锋) Chengri Ding (丁成日) Lianghao Huang (黄良浩) Outline 1. Introduction 2. Traffic Paradoxes 3. Solutions of Traffic Paradoxes - Congestion Pricing 4. Conclusions Introduction  China saw dramatic growth of private vehicles in the past two decades. In 1990, China had 5.5 million private vehicles. This number swelled to 41.73 million in 2008 (Beijing 2.48 million). The same trend will continue, if not faster.  China mainly depends on supply-side policies to mitigate urban congestion, such as through expanding network capacity. Unfortunately, supply-side policies are not effective to reduce urban traffic congestion because better roads induce more demand and urban commuting is subject to the theory of “triple convergences” (spatial, time, and modal convergences). They may also be subjected to some traffic paradoxes. Introduction  Some Chinese cities have also used regulatory instruments. In Beijing, for example, starting from April 11, 2009, private passenger vehicles are required to stay off roads one day every week, from 7AM to 8PM, with the date determined by the license numbers and being rotated quarterly. Beginning on April 12, 2010, Beijing staggers work schedule to spread peak hour trips in the morning and evening, with working hours from 9AM to 6PM for all employees in city’s public sectors. Such regulations, however, leave fewer choices and cause a lot of inconvenience for commuters. Some families are forced to purchased more vehicles than they actually need.  It is important to propose and implement demand-side policies to mitigate traffic congestion. Using price mechanism not only reduces congestion by changing commuting behavior but also generat