商业周期和动力学的国内生产总值Business Cycles and the Dynamics of GDP.pptVIP

Business Cycles and the Dynamics of GDP Chap. 27 Hong Kong GDP and Productivity Unemployment Rates The population resides in 1 of 3 categories Not in the Labor Force: Not working and not actively seeking work Labor Force Employed: Currently working. Unemployed: Not working but seeking work. Unemployment Rate Why is unemployment positive? Always people losing or leaving jobs and looking for new ones. Always people joining the labor force. In natural state of labor market, people starting to look for jobs will match the number of people who no longer need to. Natural Rate of Unemployment uN = Natural Rate Rate at which there is neither excess demand nor supply in labor market. Stays mostly stable over time. Potential Employment and Output Potential employment is the level of employment when unemployment equals the natural rate. Potential output is GDP when employment equals potential output Business Cycles Business cycles are defined by the Output Gap, the percentage difference between real GDP and potential GDP. US Output Gap Level of Unemployment in HK Recessions and Expansions The path of the economy is often divided into periods called recessions and periods caused expansions. No precise definition of “recession” or “expansion” exists but the period from peak of the output gap to the trough is a recession and the period when the output gap is increasing is an expansion. In USA, a committee at an organization called NBER “dates” periods of recessions Corporate Profits are volatile and tend to move most strongly with business cycle. Stock Market tends to co-move positively with the business cycle. Default Spreads tend to rise in recessions and fall in expansions Two Aspects of Potential Output Potential Output is unrelated to the price level but is determined by infrastructure, efficiency of labor markets, population, technological know-how. When output is above potential output, the search for workers will push up wages. When output is below potential,