添加保零约束对改进投入产出表更新方法的比较研究-集团经济与产业.PDF

Vol. 27, No. 2 FORECASTING 2008 2 添加保零约束对改进投入产出表更新方法的比较研究 1 2 2 , , (1. , 210004; 2. , 210096) : ( input2output, IO) , , , IO 2000 IO 2000 IO,:,, ;, , , ;, 1997 2002 2000 IO :;; : F223 : A : 100325192(2008) 022 0055207 Com parative R esearch on Im proving Inpu t2output Updating M ethodsw ith Zero2preservation Constrain ts 1 2 2 FAN Jin, WAN Xing, U an2hui ( 1. Research Center of JiangsuApplied Economics, JiangsuAdministration Institute, Nanjing 210004, China; 2. School of Economics andManagement, Southeast niversity, Nanjing 210096, China) Abstract: Updating input2output ( IO) tables is awl ays highlighted as anon2 survey technique. Existing literatures attach mi portance to integrating information about target tables, and neglect preserving the structure ofthe original table. The paper proposes adding zero2preservation constraints so as to keep the zero structure of the original table, and adopts nine updatingmethods forecastingChina. s IO table from 1997 to 2000 and backcastingChina. s IO table from 2002 to 2000. Theupdating results are compared with available IO table of2000. The following findings are obtained: first, zero2pres2 ervation constraints can both inherit the zero structure ofthe original table and upgrade updating accuracy ofmethods; second, both partitive and holistic accuracyareupgraded, and themethod ofcross entropy enjoy the largest mi provement among allmethods; third, the fact that an updating result from 1997 IO table is better than that from 2002 IO table mi 2 plies that existing IO table of2000 should be revi