安徽寿流感大流行传播基线风险评价.PDFVIP

第24 卷第 11 期 医 学 与 社 会 Vo1.24No.11 ·80 · 2011 年 11 月 Medicine and Society Nov.2011 ·县级现场流行病学培训学员园地 · 安徽省寿县流感大流行传播基线风险评估 江 波 安徽省寿县疾病预防控制中心，寿县，232200 摘要 目的：实现对流感大流行传播的基线风险评估，为制定科学有效的控制策略提供依据。方法：利用专家咨询法对 安徽省寿县流感大流行传播的基线风险进行评估，结合头脑风暴法，确定流感传播的风险因素，利用层次分析法确定各风险 因素的权重，应用多指标综合评价法计算评估结果。结果：迎河镇、寿春镇、安丰镇、八公山乡、板桥镇、保义镇6 个乡镇流感 传播风险最高，刘岗镇、安丰塘镇、隐贤镇、双庙集镇、窑口乡、陶店乡、茶庵镇7 个乡镇流感传播风险最低；人口密度、经济水 平、医疗条件、禽类养殖情况为流感传播的主要风险因素，其中人口密度、禽类养殖情况是最重要因素。结论：应确定流感大 流行的高风险地区和最重要的风险因素，减少防控工作的被动性与盲目性，有针对性地采取预防控制措施。 关键词 流感；风险因素；风险评估 中图分类号 R 183.3 文献标识码 A DOI.10.3870/YXYSH.20 11.11.022 The Risk Assessment of Baseline in Influenza Pandemic Spreading in Shou County, Anhui Province Jiang Bo Center for Disease Control and Prevention in Shou county, Anhui province, Shou county, 232200 Abstract Obj ective: To practice the risk assessment of baseline in influenza pandemic spreading, that providing a theoretical basis in de- veloping a scientific and effective control strategy in control of the disease. Methods: Doing the risk assessment of baseline in influenza pan- demic spreading in Shou County, Anhui Province in using of Delphi method, through statistical analysis of the influenza-spreading-related data, combined with brainstorming to determine the risk factors for the spread of influenza, in using of AHP to determine the weight of each risk fac- tor , using methods of multi-index comprehensive evaluation to calculate the results of the assessment. Results: Yinghe town, Shouchun town, Anfeng town, Bagongshan township, Banqiao town and Baoyi town these six towns have the highest risk of influenza spreading, LiuGang town, Anfengtang town, Yinxian town, S