哈佛大学--博弈论课件英文section7章节幻灯片.pptVIP

GOV 2005: Game Theory Section 7: Bayes-Nash Equilibrium Alexis Diamond adiamond@fas.harvard.edu Agenda What is Incomplete Information? What is Bayes-Nash Equilibrium? A Quick Example: Simple Game Strategies for finding solutions Bayes Rule: Prep for tomorrow’s lecture Main Ideas When some players don’t know others’ payoffs This is often true in the real world, of course. The notion of “type” is very helpful in this setting A player’s “type” , typically private information, is typically associated with his cost. More generally, the “type” of a player embodies any private information relevant to the player’s decision making By “private information”: info that is not common knowledge In addition to the player’s payoff function this may include his beliefs about other players’ payoff functions, his beliefs about what other players believe his beliefs are, and so on. What is Incomplete Information? Main Ideas Harsanyi: introduce a prior move by nature that determines the player(s)’s type(s). In the transformed game, player 2’s incomplete information about player 1’s cost becomes imperfect information about nature’s moves. This transformed game can be analyzed with standard techniques. How do we handle games of incomplete information? Main Ideas The Nash Equilibrium of the imperfect-information game A Bayesian Equilibrium is a set of strategies such that each player is playing a best response, given a particular set of beliefs about the move by nature. All players have the same prior beliefs about the probability distribution on nature’s moves. So for example, all players think the odds of player 1 being of a particular type is p, and the probability of her being the other type is 1-p What is a Bayesian Nash Equilibrium? Example: Incomplete Information When does player 2 choose to enter? In SH, Pl 1 doesn’t build (dominant strat) and player 2 enters: payoffs are (2, 1) In SL, Pl 1 builds (dominant strat) and player 2 doesn’t enter: payoffs are (5, 0) Let p1 denote prior