气候变化和政策-中国气候变化信息网.PPTVIP

Agriculture, Climate Changeand Policy农业，气候变化和政策 David Howlett, University of Leeds David Howlett 英国利兹大学 My Perspective我的观点 Now a Researcher 目前是一名研究人员 Former Policy adviser in DFID 之前是DFID的政策咨询员 Experience of agriculture in climate change negotiations 参加农业气候变化谈判 Wanting to use model results for policy 希望将模式结果用于政策 Questions – 问题 How reliable and useful are climate change and crop models for policy makers and farmers? 气候变化和作物模型对政策制定者和农民有多可靠，多有用？ Can agriculture adaptation be considered alone, or must it be considered with mitigation of green house gases? 单独考虑农业适应，还是与温室气体减排相结合？ Modelling Issues模式问题 1. Climate models (reliability) 气候模式（可靠性） 2. Crop models (reliability) 作物模式（可靠性） 3. Combining models (reliability) 二者结合的模式（可靠性） 4. Socio-economic impacts (reliability) 社会经济影响（可靠性） 5. Quantifying and reducing uncertainty, building on ESPA project 量化和减少不确定性，建设ESPA项目 Wheat Yields 小麦产量 Observations 观测 Simulations 模拟 Precision and Accuracy精准 Accurate 准确 Precise 精确 Accurate + Precise 精准 Wheat predictions小麦预估 Source Challinor et al. (2007) Scenario 情景 Range 范围 2 x CO2 in N. America 2倍CO2 ，北美 -100 to +234% +4oC low latitude +4oC低纬度 -60 to +30% + 4oC mid to high latitude +4oC中高纬度 -30 to +40% Why do we need models?为什么我们需要模式？ 中国在干旱方面风险巨大，源自英国BBC新闻– Millions at risk in China Drought BBC News To Make Decisions 做决策 We need to know impact on people: 我们需要了解对人类的影响 Food prices 粮食价格 Hunger 饥饿 Nutrition 营养 Livelihoods 生计 Economic Growth 经济增长 Migration 迁移 Security 安全 Conflict 冲突 Impact on food prices 对粮食价格的影响 Source: M. Rosegrant (IFPRI) 2009. Impact on Child Malnutrition 对儿童营养不良的影响 Source: M. Rosegrant (IFPRI) 2009. Remember uncertainty and the risks if we don’t communicate如果我们不交流，须牢记不确定性和风险 Accurate 准确 Precise 精确 Accurate + Precise 精准 Decisions on adaptation 决策和适应 Research on new crops 新作物研究 Change practices 改变耕作方式 Water management 水资源管理 Migration 迁移 Migration 迁移 Social protection 社会保护 Disaster and Risk 灾难和风险 Infrastructure 基础设施 But not just adaptationwe need to miti