随机经济中对政府债务可持续性评估外文文献.pdf

ISSN 1822-8011 (print) ISSN 1822-8038 (online) INTELEKTINĖ EKONOMIKA INTELLECTUAL ECONOMICS 2011, Vol. 5, No. 3(11), p. 401–415 ASSESSMENT OF THE SUSTAINABILITY OF GOVERNMENT DEBT IN A STOCHASTIC ECONOMY Aura DRAKŠAITĖ Kaunas University of Technology, LT-44309 Kaunas, Laisvės ave. 55, E-mail: aura.draksaite@ktu.lt Abstract. Recent abrupt increase of government debt and significant damage to the econ- omy of the most countries in the worlds revealed the lack of efficient techniques to prevent the outcomes of economic recession caused by the stochastic changes of the economy. Therefore it is important to revise the process of assessment of government debt sustainability, taking the stochastic approach as the background for the projections of future extent of the government debt. The aim of the paper is to indicate the specific features of assessment of the sustainability of government debt in stochastic economy. The main finding of the paper is that assessment of government debt sustainability in stochastic economy requires focusing on the analysis of the contingency of economy. JEL classification: B41, F34, H63, H68, H74. Keywords: debt assessment, government debt, debt sustainability, stochastic economy, sustainable economy. Reikšminiai žodžiai: skolos įvertinimas, valstybės skola, skolos tvarumas,stochastinė eko- nomika, tvari ekonomika. 1. Introduction If governmen