中国城镇居民住房消费的再估计基于CFPS数据的实证分析.pdf

CFPS China Family Panel Studies 中 国 家 庭 追 踪 调 查 Working Paper Series ：WP14-002 中国住房消费的再估计——基于CFPS数据的实证分析 赵奉军 2014 .05.13 中国城镇居民住房消费的再估计 —基于CFPS 数据的实证分析* 赵奉军 （杭州师范大学阿里巴巴商学院，311121 ） 【摘要】住房消费是居民消费支出和GDP 的重要组成部分。国际经验表明，住房消费中自 有住房的虚拟租金构成了住房消费的主体。我国传统的核算方法由于低估了城镇居民自有住 房的虚拟租金，客观上低估了我国城乡居民的住房消费。基于中国家庭追踪调查数据库 （CFPS ）提供的2010 年的城镇大样本数据，我们重新估计了城镇居民的住房消费。结果发 现，重估后的住房消费支出有显著提高，但重估后的住房消费并没有显著提高消费占GDP 的比例。中国消费率低下的问题不能归结为住房消费的系统性低估。 【关键词】住房消费；自有住房；虚拟租金 Recalculating the Housing Consumption of Chinese Urban Household : Empirical Analysis from Chinese Family Panel Studies ZHAO Fengjun (Alibaba Business College of Hangzhou Normal University) 【Abstract 】Housing consumption is an important part of consumer spending and GDP. International experience shows that imputed rental of owner-occupied housing constitutes the main housing consumption. Chinese housing consumption has been underestimated because the traditional accounting methods underestimated the imputed rental of owner-occupied housing. Based on 2010 data of a large sample from urban Chinese Family Panel Studies database (CFPS), we recalculate the housing consumption of urban household. The results showed that, the recalculating value of the housing consumption has increased significantly, but the housing consumption after revaluation did not significantly increase the consumption share of GDP. Chinese consumption rate cannot be attributed to systematic underestimation of housing consumption. 【key words 】housing consumption ；owner-occupied housing ；Imputed rent 作者简介： 赵奉军，（1974—），湖北荆