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META-ANALYSIS OF THE BUSINESS CYCLE CORRELATION BETWEEN THE EURO AREA AND THE CEECS JARKO FIDRMUC IIKKA KORHONEN CESIFO WORKING PAPER NO. 1693 CATEGORY 6: MONETARY POLICY AND INTERNATIONAL FINANCE MARCH 2006 An electronic version of the paper may be downloaded • from the SSRN website: www.SSRN.com • from the CESifo website: Twww.CESifo-group.deT CESifo Working Paper No. 1693 META-ANALYSIS OF THE BUSINESS CYCLE CORRELATION BETWEEN THE EURO AREA AND THE CEECS Abstract We review the literature on business cycle correlation between the euro area and the Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs), a topic that has gained attention as the newest EU members approach monetary union. Our meta-analysis of 35 identified publications suggests some CEECs already have comparably high correlation with the euro area business cycle. We find that estimation methodologies can have a significant effect on correlation coefficients. While CEEC central bankers tend to be more conservative in their estimates than academics or eurosystem researchers, we find no evidence of a geographical bias in the studies. JEL Code: C42, E32, F15, F31. Keywords: monetary union, optimum currency area, business cycles, meta analysis. Jarko Fidrmuc Iikka Korhonen University of Munich Institute for Economies in Transition Department of Economics Bank of Finland Geschwister-Scholl-Platz 1 PO Box 160 80539 Munich 00101 He