ScotiaMocatta全球银期货研究报告silverforecast2010.pdf

ScotiaMocatta Precious Metals Forecast 2010 Silver Executive Summary Prices continue to out perform Gold on both the upside and the downside. In 2010, Silver is expected to range between $13/oz and $25/oz. Investment demand is expected to remain strong in 2010, but a rebound in fabrication demand should see buying pressure increase. After the slump into recession in 2008, the recovery has been fast, but we doubt it is sustainable and therefore expect further distress to be seen in the months ahead. The dollar may be oversold in the short term, but structural problems suggest further dollar weakness is likely and that could lead to a dollar crisis. With the supply overhang, investors are going to have to continue buying Silver, but given their current interest and the big picture outlook, this is like ly to happen. Introduction Since moving above $10/oz in March 2006, Silver prices have been on a roller-coaster ride with some fast and long rallies interspersed with steep and aggressive sell-offs; none more so than the drop from $21.36/oz to $8.50/oz between March and October 2008. However, the strong rebound after last year’s sell-off does indicate ongoing steady interest. Silver has benefitted from being both an industrial metal and a cheap precious metal, as industrial metals have rallied strongly in anticipation of an economic recovery and as a cheap precious metal, it has won market share from Gold jewellery. Also as a precious metal it has been sought after as a hedge against dollar weakness and financial distress. Given the diverse nature of Silver demand, prices are expected to perform well as even if weakness is seen in one area of demand, the other areas should hold up and indeed could see demand accelerate. Silver also does not have the threat of IMF sales overhanging it. Generally for these reasons we feel there is still good upside potential for Silver and