SWS中国宏观经济观察20100324.pdf

渐飞研究报告 - SWS Watch List March 23, 2010 SWS RESEARCH Co.,LTD No.99 Nanjing Rd.(E) Shanghai China Macro Insight Overview of Spring China economic report: consolidating year and five new strategies Analyst The year of 2010 is a consolidating year for Chinese economy. GDP grows 9.9% in Li Huiyong full year. The foreign demand and policy orientation are the critical variables Tel: 86-21327 determining the direction of Chinese economy. lihy@ Under the game play of economy and policy, the Chinese economy will exhibit a structure of fall-consolidation-upside again from 2Q this year to 1H111. The economic growth rate will see slide in next three-six months. Chinese economy will Meng Xiangjuan consolidate at the position of 9% in next six-nine months. Chinese economy will mengxj@ show an upward trend again in next nine-twelve months. Against the backdrop of economic consolidation, we need to pay more attention to the bright spots stemming from the economy. 1) New consumption. We are Translator