The Stability and Growth Pact A Stability and Stagnation Pact稳定与增长公约的一个稳定和停滞协议.pptVIP

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The Stability and Growth Pact A Stability and Stagnation Pact稳定与增长公约的一个稳定和停滞协议.ppt

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The Stability and Growth Pact: A Stability and Stagnation Pact? Paul De Grauwe University of Leuven Introduction Two issues concerning the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP). the long-term objective implicit in the Pact. the degree of flexibility provided by the SGP Long-term objective Consensus today: budgetary policies should be such as to lead to sustainable government debt levels Maastricht Treaty has given a practical meaning to sustainability: sustainable debt level is 60% of GDP. corresponding budget deficit consistent with this target debt ratio was put at 3% of GDP. Condition: the nominal growth of GDP should be 5% Maastricht numerology has important implication (now largely forgotten by the European policy makers thanks to SGP): a country with a debt of 60% and a deficit of 3% is not in danger of finding itself on an unsustainable debt path, provided that the medium run nominal growth of GDP is close to 5% Things have changed since the Maastricht Treaty Stability Pact introduced idea that governments should balance the budget over the medium run Implication: the steady state debt ratio that countries should aim at was lowered from 60% to 0%. A formidable change in objectives, that went almost unnoticed at the time the stability pact was agreed upon. The GSP-rule may have some justification for Belgium, Greece and Italy as a temporary strategy to quickly reduce the debt levels. It has no economic justification as a permanent strategy. For the countries with debt levels of 60% and less it has no economic justification whatsoever. It is also politically unsustainable Idea behind the SGP is very cynical about capacity of governments to make productive investments. Implicitly, the SGP takes the view that governments are incapable of making productive investments that will benefit future generations. Therefore its debt ratio should be zero. This view does not correspond to economic reality: Governments, which invest in physical and human capit