基于层次分析法的输电线路防山火预警评估模型.docxVIP

基于层次分析法的输电线路防山火预警评估模型*朱奇，郭江，曾兵，付杰（武汉大学动力与机械学院，武汉 430072）摘要：山火灾害是威胁电网安全稳定运行的重要因素之一。为了有效地预防山火灾害，提出了基于层次分析法的输电线路防山火预警评估模型。以输电线路历史故障、实时监测数据和气象预报信息三个方面风险因子，构建层次结构，结合贵州电网运维数据及专家经验，构造判断矩阵，进行可行性判断，并得到各因子相对权值及整体权值，结合专家系统给出的扣分表，计算实际扣分值，从而对输电线路山火风险进行评估，并给出了防治山火跳闸事故的建议措施，提高了山火防治效率和电网安全稳定性。关键词：输电线路；山火灾害；致灾因子；层次分析法；防治措施；专家系统扣分表中图分类号：TM75 文献标识码：A 文章编号：1001-1390(2017)00-0000-00An early-warning evaluation model against mountain fire of transmission line based on analytic hierarchy processZhu Qi, Guo Jiang, Zeng Bing, Fu Jie(School of Power and Mechanical Engineering, Whuhan University, Whuhan 430072, China)Abstract:Mountain fire is one of the significant threatens for the operating safety and stability of power grid. To prevent the mountain fire effectively, this paperproposes an evaluation model against mountain fire based on AHP. Three aspects have been taken into consideration to create the hierarchical structure model, which are the historical breakdown of transmission line, the real-time monitoring data as well as the weather forecast information. Combined with the operation data and maintenance data of Guizhou Power Grid and the experience of experts, a judgment matrix has been established to evaluate the feasibility and get the relative and overall weights of each factor. With the deduction table provided by the expert system, the actual score can thus be obtained and the risk of mountain fire can be assessed. Based on these evaluation results, suggestions to prevent mountain fire have been proposed, which can improve the efficiency of mountain fire control, as well as the safety and stability of power grid.Keywords: transmission line, mountain fire, disaster factor, analytic hierarchy process, preventing measure, deduction table of expert system0引言随着社会经济建设的发展，电网已经进入大联网、大容量为标志的规模化、高效率时代[1-3]。一旦电网遭遇灾害，其影响速度快，范围广，严重影响人民的生产与生活。近年来，电网架构和建设越来越密，电力系统容量逐年增大，加上全球气候变暖，退耕还林，清明祭祖，燃放鞭炮等因素的影响，导致山火灾害频繁发生，给电网安全稳定运行带来严重威胁[4-6]。目前针对架空线路山火灾害的研究工作主要关注点在监测技术创新，以及在线装置的研究和灾害发生后的统计分析