改革政策的相互作用和经济增长.docVIP

改革、政策的相互作用和经济增长 ──来自中国省级面板数据的证据 严冀 陆铭 陈钊* 第二稿，2004年4月 (欢迎批评) 摘要：在省级面板数据的基础上，本文验证了经济开放、非国有化、财政改革等经济政策及其相互作用对中国地区经济增长的影响。我们发现：(1)对外开放（特别是对外资的利用）是中国过去十几年经济增长的重要政策因素，但这一现象在西部并没有表现。(2)财政改革也是推动经济增长的重要因素，政府从经济活动中的退出显著地提高了经济增长率。压缩预算外支出的比重有利于推动经济增长，这一特点在西部较为显著。(3)经济开放、非国有化和财政改革等经济政策在影响经济增长时是相互作用的。非国有化政策并不独立地影响增长，而是通过影响政府退出经济活动对增长的作用而影响增长的，而这个情况主要在东部有所表现。(4)在控制了经济政策及其相互作用的因素以后，区域经济存在着“条件收敛”的趋势。(5)在控制了其他因素的条件下，东部取得了更快的增长绩效，而中部和西部的增长绩效并没有显著的差异。(6)西部的经济增长模式与东部、中部有显著的差异，经济政策对经济增长的解释力在西部显著地低于东部和中部。本文的政策含义是，继续深化改革开放不仅是中国经济持续增长的希望所在，也是中国实现区域经济平衡发展的现实路径。 关键词：开放 非国有化 财政改革 经济增长 面板数据 JEL分类号：O18，O53，P21，R11  Reform, The Interaction of Policies and Growth: Evidence from Chinas Panel Data at Provincial Level Ji Yan, Ming Lu and Zhao Chen Second Version, April 2004 (Comments welcome) Abstract: Based on the provincial panel data, we have tested the effects of openness, denationalization, fiscal reform and their interaction on regional economic growth. We find that: (1) Openness, especially the growth of FDI to GDP ratio, has been important in enhancing China’s growth since mid-1980s, while in western China this effect is not so significant as that in other regions. (2) Fiscal reform is another critical factor behind economic growth. If the local governments quit from economic activities, higher growth rates in China’s regions will be obtained. To be specific, reducing the extra-budget expenditure is very helpful to push economic growth, especially in western China. (3) The interaction of economic policies such as openness, denationalization and fiscal reform also does play an essential role in local economic growth. Denationalization does not affect growth independently but expands the effect of government’s quitting economic activities towards local economy, which is demonstrated in the analysis concerning the whole nation and the eastern area. (4) With control of economic policies and their interaction terms, conditional convergence indeed exists in interregional development. (5) C