第二章宏观经济学发展史.ppt

宏观经济学发展史 * Classical Economics Dates back to the late 1700s. Rooted in the laissez faire writings of Adam Smith, David Ricardo, and Jean Baptiste Say. Classical Economics Unemployment is a natural part of the business cycle. The economy is self-correcting. Most important, there is no need for the government to intervene. The Classical EconomistsMeet the Great Depression The Great Depression The stock market crashes in 1929. Gross Domestic Product fell by almost a third between 1929 and 1933. 25% of the work force was unemployed. Business investment fell from about $16 billion in 1929 to $1 billion by 1933. The Birth of Keynesian Economics The Keynesian View John Maynard Keynes flatly rejected the Classical notion of a self-correcting economy and warned that patiently waiting for the eventual recovery was fruitless because “in the long run, we’re all dead.” The Keynesian View Keynes believed that under certain circumstances, the economy would not naturally rebound反弹 but simply stagnate淤塞 or, even worse, fall into a death spiral漩涡. The Keynesian Cure To Keynes, the only way to get the economy moving again was to prime注入 the economic pump 泵with increased government expenditures. Thus, fiscal policy was born and the Keynesian prescription became the underlying of Franklin Delano Roosevelt’s New Deal. The Kennedy Tax Cut In 1962, Heller recommended to Kennedy that the President advocate a large tax cut to stimulate the sluggish偷懒的缓慢的 economy. Congress eventually agreed, and this Keynesian tax cut helped make the 1960s one of the most prosperous 繁荣decades in America. The Foundation of Stagflation This fiscal stimulus laid the foundation for the emergence of stagflation – simultaneous high inflation and high unemployment. The Roots of Stagflation The stagflation problem had it roots in President Lyndon Johnson’s stubbornness顽固的. The Roots of Stagflation In the late 1960s, against the strong advice of his economic advisors, Johnson increased expenditures on the Vi