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PROBABILISTIC TRANSMISSION SYSTEM PLANNING Wenyuan Li, Fellow, IEEE, EIC BC Hydro, Canada IEEE-PRESS A JOHN WILEY SONS, INC., PUBLICATION PROBABILISTIC TRANSMISSION SYSTEM PLANNING IEEE Press 445 Hoes Lane Piscataway, NJ 08854 IEEE Press Editorial Board Lajos Hanzo, Editor in Chief R. Abari M. El-Hawary S. Nahavandi J. Anderson B. M. Hammerli W. Reeve F. Canavero M. Lanzerotti T. Samad T. G. Croda O. Malik G. Zobrist Kenneth Moore, Director of IEEE Book and Information Services (BIS) Technical Reviewers Roy Billinton Lalit Goel Murty Bhavaraju Wenpeng Luan A complete list of titles in the IEEE Press Series on Power Engineering appears at the end of this book. PROBABILISTIC TRANSMISSION SYSTEM PLANNING Wenyuan Li, Fellow, IEEE, EIC BC Hydro, Canada IEEE-PRESS A JOHN WILEY SONS, INC., PUBLICATION Copyright © 2011 by Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers. All rights reserved. Published by John Wiley Sons, Inc., Hoboken, New Jersey. Published simultaneously in Canada. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, scanning, or otherwise,