基于模糊理论海底隧道施工风险分析与研究.docVIP

基于模糊理论的海底隧道施工 风险分析与研究 摘 要 海底隧道工程具有投资额多、规模庞大、涉及因素众多、施工工序复杂、事故后果严重且影响深远的特点，因此有必要在施工时进行风险的识别、分析和评价，为工程的顺利施工提供参考依据。 本文详细研究了海底隧道工程施工风险分析评价的各部分内容，包括风险识别、风险估计、风险指标体系、风险评价，主要包括以下几个方面： 1、根据海底隧道工程施工的特点，以及对其各个施工步骤的详细分析，将复杂的海底隧道工程施工过程分解成容易被认识和理解的基本风险因素。 2、在风险辨识的基础上，利用层次分析法(AHP)建立海底隧道工程施工风险评价的指标体系，并结合l～9标度法，解决了各风险因素在指标体系中的权重问题。 3、根据海底隧道工程施工风险度量的模糊性特点，运用模糊集理论对风险因素进行量化，及其基于专家估计的经验分布法，解决了海底隧道工程风险估计中的量化问题。 4、根据海底隧道施工的特点，利用事故树法对突水涌泥作了风险分析，并提出了相应的风险对策降低施工风险。 5、运用模糊集理论对造成塌方的风险因素进行量化，及其基于专家估计的经验分布法对风险进行评估。 关键词：海底隧道工程，施工风险，层次分析法，模糊估计，模糊综合评价方法，事故树法 ABSTRACT The sub-sea tunnel project by mining method has the characteristic of high investment，large scale，complicated construction procedure involving many factors serious consequence and heavy effect．Thereby，it is necessary to implement risk identification，analysis and assessment for the construction of sub-sea tunnel early．The results can be reference for project decision． The paper study deeply various parts of construction risk evaluation for sub-sea tunnel project, which include risk identification，risk estimation，risk index system and risk assessment．The main contents and achievements of the paper summarized as follows： 1．According as the characteristic of the sub-sea tunnel project by mining method，and by detailed analyzing the step of the construction，the complicated construction process is decomposed to base risk factor by knowing and understanding easily． 2．Establish construction risk assessment index system using the Analytic Hierarchy progress method(AHP)，and confirm relative index weight of each level with 1～9 scales method． 3．According as the characteristic of fuzzy in risk estimation of sub-sea tunnel project by mining method，the risk factor is quantified by fuzzy theory，and theexperience distributing metho base on estimation from expert，the paper solve the quantification issue in risk estimatio of the sub-sea tunnel project by mining method． 4．According as the characteristic of the sub-sea tunnel project by mining method，us