执行模拟的步骤.pptVIP

Chapter 5: 執行模擬的步驟 授課老師：劉天倫 老師 執行模擬的程序 步驟一：建立模擬目標及限制 步驟二：蒐集分析系統資料數據 步驟三：建構正確的模型 步驟四：施行模擬實驗 步驟五：呈現結果文件 確立模擬目標 Common objectives Performance analysis Feasibility study Capacity analysis Comparison study Sensitivity analysis Optimization Decision/response analysis Constraint(bottleneck) analysis Communication 資料收集與分析 (1) Guidelines 1. Identify data requirements Goal-oriented: acquire an understanding of system operation Steps: required scope of the model level of detail quick determination on relevant factors identification of decision variables(input) essence of the system (what’s happening, not how things happen) Identify cause-and-effect relationships scheduled events vs. conditional events(unpredictable) e.g. downtime: failure, tool change, unavailability of stock, etc. 資料收集與分析 (2) 2. Use a systematic approach General information, then specific information as progressed. Steps: define entity flow (flow diagram) define how entities move and what resource used determine the values to use Questionnaire 3. Use appropriate sources Process plans Time studies Flow charts Facility layouts Personal interviews Facility walk-throughs 資料收集與分析 (3) 4. Prepare a list of assumptions Unavailable or unreliable data Little or no impact on performance Best case, most likely case or worst case 5. Convert data into a useful form Data fitting ? theoretical distribution Empirical distribution (user-defined) Tabulate frequency distributions(Table 5.1) 6. Document, review, and approve data Written summary Flow diagram 建構正確有用的模型 Model fidelity: Degree to system’s details and accuracy No more than minimum required fidelity (Figure 5.2) Model life cycle Model partitioning Progressive refinement Model verification(debugging) Model validation representational validity to the real system 施行模擬實驗 Expected performance Optimum value for a decision variable Optimum combination of values Sensitivity of variable changes Alternative system comparison 呈現結果文件 Make recommendations ope