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中国电子商务分析
China e-Commerce: Racing for Prime Positions in a $300 bn Market
Dec.25 2010
Table of Contents
We estimate China’s e-commerce market will grow from $80 bn in 2010 to $300 bn in 2015
Online marketplaces dominate online shopping in China today
e-tailers are growing fast and investing for the future
Online marketplaces and e-tailers converging
Many single-category survivors, only 2-3 can make Prime
We estimate China’s e-commerce market will grow from $80 bn in 2010 to $300 bn in 2015
Internet set to impact retail spending next, after transforming advertising and entertainment
We estimate China e-commerce at 2% of retail sales in 2009, 7% in 2015E
We estimate China’s e-commerce market will grow from $80 bn in 2010 to $300 bn in 2015
More online shoppers to drive growth: 8% of China’s population shops online, vs. 50% in US, 58% in Korea
We estimate China’s e-commerce market will grow from $80 bn in 2010 to $300 bn in 2015
We estimate that online shopping in China is at a comparable stage of evolution to the US 5 years ago and Korea 8 years ago
Online marketplaces dominate online shopping in China today
Online marketplaces and e-tailers
Globally, there are two dominant models for selling products online:
Online marketplace
Online marketplaces act as venues for merchants to sell products.
eBay, Yahoo! and Japan Auctions.
The advantages of online marketplaces:
Absence of inventory risk.
Low capital expenditure requirements.
The ability to provide a broad range of products.
Online marketplaces dominate online shopping in China today
B. e-tailers
Online retailers (“e-tailers”) sell products themselves and are thus functionally akin to mainstream offline retailers. Major e-tailers globally include Amazon, B2W, and Interpark. The advantages of e-tailers as businesses include the following:
Full control of the fulfillment processes, including wareho
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