房地产项目开发阶段风险的模糊评价.doc

湖北科技学院学士学位论文 PAGE III 摘要 摘要 在房地产项目开发阶段存在着风险大、情况复杂等问题。本文首先介绍房地产项目开发阶段的工作内容，并且对房地产项目开发阶段的工作面临的风险进行了有针对性的分析，并且归纳出了相应的风险因子。在此基础上构建出风险评价的指标体系，在数据的采集过程中运用了层次分析法和模糊综合评价法，建立了风险因素的判断集和风险因子的评价模型。最后将模型应用于实例验证，根据模糊评价的结果判断出最能影响实例项目的风险因素。 关键词：风险；模糊评价法；风险管理 ABSTRACT ABSTRACT In the stage of real estate project development phase, there are many risks and the situation is complicated。This article describes the content of the work of the real estate project development phase and has a targeted analysis of the specific risks faced by the real estate project development phase to sum up the corresponding risk factors. Building the index system of risk assessment on that basis. Using fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method and urban analysis method in the data collection process and build the set of the judgment set of risk factors and risk factor evaluations, which are applied to the instance of the verification; finally, put the model determining the risk factor that affect the risk of the project most. Keywords: risk; fuzzy evaluation method; risk management; 目录 PAGE IV 目录 TOC \o 1-3 \h \z \u HYPERLINK \l _Toc325971323 1 引言 PAGEREF _Toc325971323 \h 1 HYPERLINK \l _Toc325971324 1.1论文研究的背景和意义 PAGEREF _Toc325971324 \h 1 HYPERLINK \l _Toc325971325 1.2风险研究现状 PAGEREF _Toc325971325 \h 1 HYPERLINK \l _Toc325971326 1.3研究思路及方法 PAGEREF _Toc325971326 \h 1 HYPERLINK \l _Toc325971327 2 房地产项目开发阶段的风险 PAGEREF _Toc325971327 \h 3 HYPERLINK \l _Toc325971328 2.1房地产项目风险 PAGEREF _Toc325971328 \h 3 HYPERLINK \l _Toc325971329 2.1.1房地产项目风险的定义 PAGEREF _Toc325971329 \h 3 HYPERLINK \l _Toc325971330 2.1.2房地产项目风险的特点 PAGEREF _Toc325971330 \h 3 HYPERLINK \l _Toc325971331 2.2房地产项目开发阶段的工作内容 PAGEREF _Toc325971331 \h 3 HYPERLINK \l _Toc325971332 2.3房地产项目开发阶段的风险因素的种类 PAGEREF _Toc325971332 \h 3 HYPERLINK \l _Toc325971333 2.3.1房地产项目开发阶段的主观风险 PAGEREF _Toc325971333 \h 3 HYPERLINK \l _Toc325971334 2.3.2房地产项目开发阶段的客观风险 PAGEREF _Toc325971334 \h 5 HYPERLINK \l _Toc325971335 3 房地产项目开发阶段的风险评价 PAGEREF _To