shefrin行为公司金融课件Chap02.pptVIP

Chapter 2 VALUATION Behavioral Corporate Finance by Hersh Shefrin Valuation Heuristics P/E heuristic P0 = P0/E1 x E1 Target price P1 = P1/E2 x E2 PEG Heuristic P0 = PEG x E1 x G, where G is 100 x growth rate Price-to-sales Heuristic P0 = P0/S1 x S1, where S stands for sales Behavioral Pitfalls: Judging the Value of eBay On May 20, 2003 eBay’s P/E ratio was 66.2, while Wal-Mart’s P/E was 22.7. eBay appeared to be over twice as expensive as War-Mart. Analysts were expecting eBay to grow by 42.5%, while they were only expecting Wal-Mart to grow by 14%. eBay’s PEG was 1.56, which was actually lower than Wal-Mart’s PEG of 1.62. Behavioral Pitfalls: Wall-Marting of the Web Mary Meeker, “Queen of the Internet.” Just as the traditional retailer Wal-Mart came to dominate the retail sector, web-based counterparts would emerge and dominate Internet commerce. Mary Meeker described the phenomenon as the “Wal-Marting of the Web.” Mary Meeker’s Target Prices for eBay Exhibit 2.1 Methodology Exhibit 2.2 Free Cash Flow Computation Meeker forecasted that free cash flows in 2011 will be $3,266,096 = 1.07 x $3,052,426. She then applied the perpetuity formula PV = $3,266,096 / (0.12-0.07) = $65,321,907 Biases Discount rate, 12%, fair expected return. Target price of $106 implies expected return exceeds 12%. PEG and P/E target prices imply returns below 12%, even negative. FCF and price-to-sales target prices imply returns above 12%. Biased Free Cash Flows Differences? EBITDA working capital investment Textbook Style Valuation $23,742 = E2011/r = $2,849/0.12 Because eBay pays no dividends before 2010, the $23,742 would be worth $21,199 at the end of 2009, $21,199= $23,742/1.12. Discounting back to mid-2004 would lead to a value of $11,366 (=$12,029/1.120.5) at that time. Mistaking Growth for Growth Opportunities Mary Meeker titled her April 2003 report on eBay “Tales of a Growth Machine.” Analysts are inclined to mistake growth in EPS for growth opp