东亚气候年代际变化研究1-周天军.pptVIP

中国科学院大气物理研究所 LASG Cooling downstream of the Plateau Contribution of Cloud-Radiation Change to the Cooling * 东亚气候年代际变化研究 周天军 E-mail: zhoutj@ 中科院大气所 《气候动力学》博士研究生学位课程（Apr 24, 2008) 气候学研究的三种基本手段 观 测 理论 模式 Trend Toward Increased Aridity in N. China and Flooding in S. China in the 20th Century JJA Trend of Precipitation for 1958-2000 from station data Trend Toward Increased Aridity in N. China and Flooding in S. China in the 20th Century Southern Flooding and Northern Drought Courtesy of Sohu web news North China South China Western Route Project South-to-North Water Diversion Project Middle Route Project Eastern Route Project /zx/english Courtesy of SNWD website Change in Observed Precipitation: 1951-2000 Change in Observed Temperature: 1951-2000 “Detection is the process of demonstrating that an observed change is significantly different (in a statistical sense) than can be explained by natural variability.” (IPCC, 2001) “Attribution is the process of establishing cause and effect with some defined level of confidence, including assessment of competing hypotheses. “ (IPCC, 2001) Detection and Attribution of E. Asian Climate Change Detection Attribution Tools Observed, Monthly 1958-2000 station data of pcpn sfcT and radio sonde T from China Meteorological Administration (CMA). (Detection) NCEP/NCAR and ERA40 data. (Detection) Atmospheric Climate Simulations Forced by NAO-perturbed stratosphere trends. 3 AGCMs. (Attribution of NAO Forcing) Atmospheric Climate Simulations Forced by Observed, Indian Ocean SST trends. 3 AGCMs. (Attribution of Ocean Forcing) Forced Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean Simulations (AR4). Observed GHGs,Aerosols and Natural External Forcings for 1950-1999. 23 CGCMS. (Attribution of External Forcing agents such as GHG aerosol). 科学问题 全球在增暖，欧亚大陆副热带春季为何变冷？ 青藏高原下游的变冷与中高纬度环流异常 春季降水异常：华南春旱 夏季降水异常：南涝北旱 东亚气候年代际变化的三维结构及其在不同季节的表现 Climatic mean changes (1975-1999 minus 1950-1974