毕业设计论文-基于BP神经网络的电力系统短期负荷预测.doc

本科生毕业设计说明书（毕业论文） 题 目：基于BP神经网络的电力系统短期负荷预测基于BP神经网络的电力系统短期负荷预测电力系统短期负荷预测优点是对大量的非性、非准确性规律具有自适应功能。BP 神经网络应用于电力系统短期负荷预测做了进一步的研究,并通过MATLAB设计BP神经网络，仿真结果表明BP神经网络在短期负荷预测中的应用是可行的，能较好的反映负荷预测的非线性特性，但由于本文没有考虑气候，温度，节假日等因素的数据，做出来的仿真结果并不令人十分满意，不过依然可以肯定BP神经网络依然优于传统的预测方法，是一个有待于我们去研究和开发的新领域。 关键词：BP神经网络；短期负荷预测ased on BP neural network power system Short-term load forecasting Abstract Short-term load forecasting in real-time power system control and to ensure economic, safe and reliable operation plays an important role, it has become a modern power system energy management system is an important component. Load forecasting errors will lead to sharp increase in operating and production costs, therefore, accurately predict the power to become the workers and technical personnel to address the problem. Various power system affected by the load change, on the one hand, there is the unknown load change caused by fluctuations in uncertainty; the other hand, there are periodic changes in the laws, which makes a similar load curve. At the same time, due to weather, holidays and other special circumstances of, and differences in the load changes occur, showing a strong nonlinearity. In this paper, BP neural network based prediction method, the biggest advantage of this approach is that the nonlinear characteristics of a large number of non-accuracy of the law of adaptive function. In this paper, BP neural network for short term load forecasting in power system to do further research and design BP neural network through the MATLAB , simulation results show that BP neural network in the short-term load forecasting is feasible, and can better reflect the load predict the nonlinear characteristics, but because this article does not consider the climate, temperature, holidays and other factors, the data, so it is not very satisfactory simulation results, but still certainly better than the traditional prediction ,and it is a need to be us to new areas of research and development.? Keywords：Po