基于wrf模式的三峡库区陆气耦合模型分析及短期预报系统开发与应用-analysis of land-air coupling model and development and application of short-term forecasting system in three gorges reservoir area based on wrf model.docxVIP

AbstractTheThreeGorges Reservoir dispatch considers floodcontrol, powergeneration, watersupply,navigation,ecologyandotheraspects,andtheaccuratedispatchneedshigh temporalandspatialresolutionandhighaccuracyofprecipitationforecastinformation withinacertainperiodoftimeinthefuture.Inordertoimproveforecastaccuracyand forecastperiodoftheinflow,itisverysignificanttothedevelopmentofarationaland efficientreservoirregulationscheme,byimprovingtheaccuracyofprecipitationforecast, providingsomeforeseeableperiodofprecipitationinformationtodriveinflowforecasting model.Toachievehigh-precisionshort-terminflowforecastofThreeGorgesReservoir,as wellastoextendtheforecastperiod, selectstheThreeGorgesreservoirareaasthe analysisarea,appliesWRFV3.3asashort-termweatherforecastingsystemoftheThree GorgesReservoirArea,andusesofTSscoresandrangeanalysistoanalyzeWRFV3.3 parameterizationschemesensitivitytodeterminethemostsuitablecombinationofWRF modelparameterizationschemeoftheThreeGorgesReservoir Area.Basedonthat, throughtheone-waycoupling,couplingVICdistributedhydrologicalmodeland WRFV3.3forforecasting.Thecaseresultsshowthatthemodelpredictionmethodismore effectiveandhascertainpractical.Thesystemhasbeensuccessfullydeployedandapplied in theThreeGorges dispatching center.AsWRF-VICcoupledhydrologicandatmosphericmodelingresearchappliedtothe ThreeGorgesProjecttomeettheneedsoftheproductionunitsofworktoimprovethe accuracyofshort-termhydrologicalforecastingandextendedforecastperiod,theresearch designsanddevelopsthecoupledhydrologicandatmosphericmodelingshort-term forecasting systemoftheThreeGorgesReservoirArea.Themodelofthesystembetween thevariousdisciplines comprehensivelyrelates to compilethepattern,the high-performancecomputing,datastorage,thehydrometeorologicaldataqueryanddeal withweathersituationmapqueryfunctions.ThecoreofthesystemmoduleWRFmodelappliesSSHcommunicationmechanismwithmpich2whichistheparallelcompiler software,stand-alonemulti-coreparallelcompilationontheHPZ800Workstation, significantlyincre