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一次高影响小雨过程预报失误地原因初探
Open Journal of Nature Science 自然科学, 2017, 5(3), 274-285
Published Online July 2017 in Hans. /journal/ojns
/10.12677/ojns.2017.53038
Preliminary Discussion on the Failure
Forecasting Related to a High-Impact Light
Rain in Shanghai
Chunhong Shi
Shanghai Meteorological Center, Shanghai Meteorological Service, Shanghai
th th th
Received: Jun. 16 , 2017; accepted: Jul. 7 , 2017; published: Jul. 10 , 2017
Abstract
Due to the failure forecast on a light rain of 8-9 April 2010 in Shanghai, the highest temperature
forecast is fault, the error near 7˚C. In this paper, the possible reasons of failure forecast on the
high-impact light rain are discussed. The results show that: the lower (850 hPa) mesoscale fron-
togenesis slows down the moving speed of low-level shortwave trough, causing the shortwave
trough appearing a unusual “forward-lean” vertical structure during the trough movement, lead-
ing to the trough line of high-level (500 hPa) passing through Shanghai but the lower-pressure
system havent and the light rain process sustains. Obviously, the unexpected phenomenon is dif-
ficult to forecast in operation. Furthermore, the forecast results have not been timely adjusted
when the early forecasts have already shown the significant deviations, because of the inertia fo-
recasting thinking. And the mesoscale analysis based on the numerical model products is not
in-depth enough. Particularly, the limited capabilities of numerical model forecast on the weak
process and its weather elements, are the main reasons for ultimate forecast failure. Finally, some
inspirations on the forecast of spring light rain
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