外文文献： 石油价格波动和新加坡经济Oil price fluctuations and Singapore economy.pdfVIP

Energy Policy 31 (2003) 1151–1165 Oil price fluctuations and Singapore economy Youngho Chang*, Joon Fong Wong Department of Economics, National University of Singapore, Singapore 117570, Singapore Abstract This study finds that the impact of an oil price shock on the Singapore economy is marginal. Bot himpulse response and variance decomposition analysis provide reasonable grounds to believe that the impact only had an insignificant adverse effect on Singapore’s gross domestic product (GDP), inflation and unemployment rates. Further analysis on two oil vulnerability measures supports the finding: the declining trend of oil intensity in Singapore since 1989 and the declining shares of the Singapore’s expenditure on oil consumption as a percentage of its nominal GDP. This study identifies, however, that the impact of an oil price shock on the Singapore economy should not be considered negligible even thoug hit is small. r 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. JEL: Q43 Keywords: Oil price fluctuations; Macroeconomic performance; Singapore 1. Introduction past decade, it would be safe to conclude that none of the energy importing Asian economies would have been Oil has had a unique position in the world’s economic as successful over the past decade wit ha price of US$40 system. It is a vital source of energy, an irreplaceable per barrel of oil. transport fuel, and an essential raw material in many Singapore has been identified as one of the six Asian manufacturing processes. World oil consumption economies that are considered to be seriously expos