QHD-油田电泵机组故障预测方法及其现场应用.docVIP

————————————————————————————————————————————————————— QHD32-6油田电泵机组故障预测方法及其现场应用 第36卷 第1期 2014年1 月石 油 钻 采 工 艺 OIL DRILLING amp; PRODUCTION TECHNOLOGYVol. 36 No. 1Jan. 2014 01 – 0116 – 04 doi:10.13639/j.odpt.2014.01.031文章编号：1000 – 7393（ 2014 ） QHD32-6油田电泵机组故障预测方法 及其现场应用 黄新春　郑春峰　李　昂　苏作飞 （中海油能源发展股份有限公司工程技术分公司，天津　300452） 摘要：为加强QHD32-6油田电泵井管理和有效预测电泵机组发生故障的概率，应用模糊综合评判方法，建立了引发电泵机组故障的因素集、权重集和判断集，给出了影响因素风险系数计算方法和单井风险评价等级标准，建立了电泵井机组故障预测模型。该方法能够预测运转电泵机组故障概率高的井。实际应用表明，2013年上半年应用该方法预测机组故障概率，其准确率达77.78%，累计挽回产量损失7 075 m3。该方法预测准确率能满足工程技术分析需要，为电泵井优化管理提供了技术支持。 关键词：海上油田；电泵井；机组故障预测；模糊综合评判方法 中图分类号：TE355.5+4 文献标识码：B Fault prediction method and field application of QHD32-6 oilfield electric pump unit HUANG Xinchun, ZHENG Chunfeng, LI Ang, SU Zuofei （CNOOC Energy Technology amp; Services Limited, Tianjin 300452, China） Abstract:?To?enhance?the?management?of?QHD32-6?oilfield?electric?pump?wells?and?predict?effectively?the?probability?of?faults?of?electric pump units, fuzzy comprehensive judgment method is applied to establish the element set, weight set and judgment set of faults of?electric?pump?units,?to?provide?the?calculation?method?of?risk?coefficient?of?influencing?factor?and?criterion?of?risk?evaluation?level?of single well and to establish the fault prediction model of electric pump units. This method can predict the wells with high fault prob-ability of operating electric pump unit. The actual application shows that the accuracy of application of this method in fault probability prediction?of?units?was?77.78?%?in?the?first?half?of?2013?and?accumulative?production?loss?saved?is?7,075?m3. The predict accuracy of this method can meet the demand for engineering and technical analysis to provide technical support for optimized management of electric pump. Key words:?Offshore?oilfield;?electric?pump?well;?unit?fault?prediction;?fuzzy?comprehensive?judgment?method目前QHD32-6油田电泵井占总机采井的95.5%， 在实际油田生产