农村气候变化减缓投资增收效应的非对称性协整关系研究.docVIP

农村气候变化减缓投资增收效应的非对称性协整关系研究 农林经济管理学报2015,14(1):44-54 //xuebao.jxau.edu.cn Joumal of Agro-Forestry Economics and Management E-mail: nljjglxb@sina4 谭灵芝.农村气候变化减缓投资增收效应的非对称性协整关系研究[JJ.农林经济管理学报，2015，14( 1) :44-54. 农衬气候变化减缓投资增收效应的非对称性协整关系研究谭灵芝(重庆工商大学长江上游经济研究中心，重庆4∞俑7)摘要:基于中长期和短期两个角度，借助非对称协整模型，分析气候减缓资金与农户增收之间的相互关系。格兰杰因果关系表明:短期内减缓资金的投入对农户增收的影响是单向的。非对称协整检验的结果发现:同样大小但方向相反的减缓投入冲击对农户收入影响增幅不同，这种非对称性主要源自减缓资金可有效降低因气候变化而引致的收入波动，对农户增收产生长期效应。而气候变化影响的长期性、减缓项目可能带来农户收益的不确定性和个体的有限理性等是引起短期内农户收入由升到降的主要原因。短期和长期的研究结果说明:长期内，政府仍应加大减缓投入规模，但短期仍需通过增加一些辅助措施，最大限度减少政策变动对农户收入的影响、提高农户的参与度。关键词:减缓资金;农户增收;非对称性中固分类号:8#004699F304.4文献标志码:A文章编号:2佣5-6924(2015) 01-∞44-11 Asymmetry of Mitigation Investment with Farmers’ Income Increase TAN Ling-Zhi (Center of Economics and Management, Chongqing Technology and Business University, Chongqing 400067 ,China) Abstract: The asymmetric relations between climate mitigation and capital and farmers’ income were ex??plored based on long term and short term’ perspectives. The Granger causality showed that the impacts of mit??igation investments on the farmers’ income are unidirectional in the short te口n.The asymmetric test results showed the same size but in the opposite direction into the impact on the household income. This paper argues that the asymmetry between mitigation investment and farmers’ income is mainly derived from the fact that mitigation funds can effectively reduce income fluctuations caused by climate change, resulting in long term effect on farmers’ income growth. The long-term effects of climate change, the uncertainty of farmers ’ income caused by mitigation funds, bounded rationality of individual income, etc. are the main causes for the short term tum of household income from rise to drop. The short term and long term research results indicate that the govemment should increase investment scale in the long term while in the short term it should increase the number of auxiliary measures to minimize the impact of policy changes on farmers ’ income and enc