基于人体舒适度指数负荷预测.doc

摘 要 负荷预测作为能量管理系统(EMS)和电力系统运行管理的重要组成部分, 其预测结果同电力系统的安全、经济运行密切相关。电力负荷预测是指定发电计划和电力系统发展规划的基础。随着社会经济与电力系统的发展，系统对负荷预测的精度要求越来越高，很多先进的模型取代了传统的模型。随着负荷预测系统的完善，负荷预测考虑的影响因素也不断增加，从而提高负荷预测的精度。气象因素的影响对负荷的影响也是很明显的，特别是在夏天季节，空调，冰箱等制冷设备的使用影响着负荷的趋势。因此，本文引入了人体舒适度指数作为因变量进行预测。人体舒适度指数就是建立在气象要素预报的基础上，较好地反映多数人群的身体感受综合气象指标或参数。以综合考虑温度、湿度、风速等因素的综合气象指数为切入点，并以其为关联变量建模，运用回归分析法对历史负荷数据进行处理的基础上进行负荷预测，从而探讨负荷与人体舒适度指数的关系，得出一个运用人体舒适度指数为因变量的负荷预测模型。 关键字：负荷预测，人体舒适度指数，回归分析法ABSTRACT The load forecast is an important constituent in electricity system operation management and energy management system (EMS), its forecast results are related to power system security and economic operation. Generating plan and designated power system development planning are based on power load forecasting. Along with the social economy and the development of electric power system, the system of load forecasting accuracy requirement is more and more strict, a lot of advanced model replaced the traditional one. As the load forecast system becomes more perfect, we consider more factors which influence the load forecasting, so as to improve the accuracy of the load forecast. Meteorological factors that influence the effect of load is obvious. Especially in the summer season, the refrigeration equipments such as air conditioner, refrigerator, affect load trend. Therefore, this article introduces human comfort index as the dependent variable forecast. Human comfort index was built on the basis of meteorological forecast, which better reflect most people’s feeling about the body comprehensive meteorological index or parameters. With the comprehensive considering temperature, humidity, wind speed of meteorological index factors such as comprehensive as the breakthrough point, and with its associated variables for modeling, we use regression analysis data processing of historical load on the basis of load forecast, and explores the load and human relations, measurable index to get a dependent variable load forecasting model by using hu