一类具有时滞和阶段结构的传染病模型的稳定性及hopf分支分析-stability and hopf bifurcation analysis of a class of epidemic model with time delay and stage structure.docxVIP

摘要现在，传染病仍在世界范围内广泛的存在，并且不时大面积的爆发。时常 给人们的生产、生活带来巨大的影响。所以研究传染病的发展规律，对疾病的 预防和控制有十分重要的现实意义。本文研究的系统是一种含有时滞的分阶段传染病模型。 在文中，我们以时滞??为参数，对模型的稳定性和 Hopf 分支进行分析。首先，讨论系统平衡点的存在性，求出其三个平衡点，然后重点讨论系统的两个非零平衡点——无病平衡点和正平衡点的性质。 我们先对无病平衡点进行分析，给出了一个条件，当其不成立时，该传染病将持续存在，不能被根除；当此条件成立时，传染病可能被根除，但它还与时滞??有关。通过讨论该系统在平衡点处的特征方程根的分布，得到一系列??值， 并证明了在这些??值处横截条件成立。进而，确定了该平衡点的稳定性，即疾病能否被最终消除。然后，用类似的方法分析了正平衡点的稳定性。通过系统在该平衡点处的特征方程，也得到了一系列??值，计算在这些??值处特征根的变化趋势，得到特 征根的分布情况，从而得到了正平衡点的稳定性。进而，可知当??经历这些临界值时，系统在此平衡点处经历了 Hopf 分支。然后，运用规范型方法和中心流形理论，我们确定了 Hopf 分支的方向、分支周期解的稳定性和周期的大小。 最后，给出一些关于正平衡点的数值结果来说明我们的理论分析。关键词：传染病模型；时滞；Hopf 分支；平衡点；稳定性；周期解AbstractThe infectious diseases are still existing in a large area of the world now, breaking out from time to time, and taking many negative impact to people’s normal production and life. Therefore, the research of the development of the diseases has important practical significance for its prevention and control.In this paper, we will investigate a kind of p hased infectious diseases modelwith time delay. Taking time delay ??as the parameter, we will analyze the stabilityand Hopf bifurcation of the model.First, discussing the existence of the equilibriums, we find out the three equilibriums of the model. And we will focus on the two non- zero equilibriums of the system: disease- free equilibrium and the positive equilibrium.In the following, the disease- free equilibrium is analyzed firstly. We can give a condit ion. When it doesn’t hold, the disease will continue, that is, it can’t be eradicated; otherwise, the disease may be eradicated. However, the stability is alsorelated with the time delay ??. By discussing the characteristic equation of the system at the disease- free equilibrium, we can get a series of values of ??. Provingthe transversal condition at these values, we will determine the stability of theequilibrium, from which, we can know whether the disease can be eliminated at last.Then, we will analyze the stability of the positive equilibrium