基于灰色综合评估法的大型商业地产投资风险评价分析-risk evaluation analysis of large commercial real estate investment based on grey comprehensive evaluation method.docx
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基于灰色综合评估法的大型商业地产投资风险评价分析-risk evaluation analysis of large commercial real estate investment based on grey comprehensive evaluation method
TheReasearchofRiskAssessmentinLarge-scaleCommercialRealEstateInvestmentBasedontheGraySynthesisEvaluationSpecialty:ConstructionandManagementofCivilEngineeringPostgraduate:ZhangDekaiInstructor:Ass.Pro.GuoShihongABSTRACTRecentyears,underthebackgroundofthedomesticgovernment’sincreasingmacro-controlovertheresidentrealestate,itbecomesmoreandmoredifficultfordeveloperstogainasuperabundantprofitfromthedwellinghouses.Duetoitsabundantprofit,thecommercialrealestategraduallyturnsintoanewinvestmenthotspot.However,asacompoundshapeoftherealestateintegratingrealestatedevelopmentwithcommercialoperation,thedomesticdevelopersgenerallylacksapackageofrelativelymatureoperationpatternforthecommercialrealestate,thentheblindinvestmentbringsabouthugerisk.Foralargecommercialrealestateproject(aninvestmentscaleexcessing70,000㎡)developer,theproject’ssuccessorfailureevenattimes,playsacrucialroleinandhasadecisiveinfluenceonanenterprise’sfateandmarketsurvivalcapacity,soareinforceoftheproject’sinvestmentriskmanagementandariseofitssuccessrateemergesasanpressingpriority.Thisarticlecomplieswithandcatersfortheneedoflarge-scalecommercialrealestateriskmanagementandcontrol,conductsaresearchoninvestmentriskidentificationandevaluationmethodsoverlarge-scalecommercialrealestate.First,thearticlefocusesontheanalysisofthedifferentcharacteristicsbetweenthelarge-scalecommercialrealestateinvestmentandcommondwellinghouse.Andcombiningwithcase,itanalyzesthecharacteristicsandapplicationprospectofthethreeinvestmentpatterns,namely“Propertysalespatterm”、“RentCombinationpatterm”、“Justforrent-Notforsalepatterm”respectively.Secondly,itadoptshierarchicalholographicmodeling(HHM)tobuildtheHHMstructureofriskidentificationfrommultipledimensionsandperspectives,quitesystematicallyandcomprehensivelyidentifiesthe59typesofinvestmentriskregardingthelarge-scalecommercialrealestate.Byvirtueofadoptingvarioustheorymethods,suchasQuestionnaire,Literatureanalysis,Frequencystatistics,Delphietc,combiningwiththe6principlesdeterminedbyindex,thisthe
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