基于LASSO-SVM模型银行定期存款电话营销预测.pdfVIP

Statistics and Application 统计学与应用, 2016, 5(3), 289-298 Published Online September 2016 in Hans. /journal/sa /10.12677/sa.2016.53029 Telephone Marketing Forecast of Bank Time Deposits Based on the LASSO-SVM Model Ruiting Mei, Yang Xu, Guochang Wang* College of Economics, Jinan University, Guangzhou Guangdong th rd th Received: Sep. 7 , 2016; accepted: Sep. 23 , 2016; published: Sep. 29 , 2016 Copyright © 2016 by authors and Hans Publishers Inc. This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution International License (CC BY). /licenses/by/4.0/ Open Access Abstract Time deposits have always been the main source of funds for the bank, and the telephone mar- keting has become a low-cost marketing model, which is widely popular with the bank. Therefore, how to improve the success rate of telemarketing has become an important problem to solve. Among them, the factors that affect customers ordering deposits are complicated, which may have multicollinearity. If banks indiscriminately use many influence factors to predict deposits, they often cannot obtain good prediction effects, and even make the wrong decision. In the statistical learning methods, the LASSO method can be used to estimate parameters and select variables, so this paper presents a combination forecast method based on the LASSO and Support Vector Ma- chine (SVM). At the same time, compared with SVM, neural network, LASSO-neural network me- thods, we find that the effect of LASSO-SVM forecasting method is better than the other three kinds of forecasting methods. Keywords Time Deposits, Telephone Marketing, Support Vector Machine, LASSO-SVM 基于LASSO-SVM