中国面临的机遇和挑战-李开复.ppt

Seamless ComputingOpportunities Challenges for China Kai-Fu Lee Corporate Vice President Microsoft Corporation Talk Outline IT Growth Seamless Computing Opportunities for China Software : Engine of growth Power of software today: US$200 Billion industry 10 million well-paid professionals Increased efficiency everywhere 5 times faster growth than GDP Will the growth continue? Microsoft: YES! Microsoft RD: 1998 : $3 billion 2004 : $7.9 billion What fuels this growth? Moore’s law Waves of innovation. User Interface Evolution Natural User InterfaceDo what I mean A Roadmap Towards NUI Vision A Roadmap Towards NUI Vision A Roadmap Towards NUI Vision A Roadmap Towards NUI Vision A Roadmap Towards NUI Vision A Roadmap Towards NUI Vision A Roadmap Towards NUI Vision A Roadmap Towards NUI Vision A Roadmap Towards NUI Vision A Roadmap Towards NUI Vision Speech Accelerated by… …Super-Moore’s Law Enable human-level speech recognition (SR): Leveraging Moore’s Law + more data + research Predictable 10% error reduction or more per year Human-level performance possible in 10-20 years Also enable natural language, Bayesian learning…. IT Software : Opportunities for China China China = #1 factor in Asia’s growth Huge market #2 PC market in the world #1 phone market in the world Huge growth 25% CAGR in IT 50% in software services India : World Leader in Outsourcing “Ideal” population for outsourcing English-speaking country with good education Entry-level call center jobs with growth path 700 million people under 35 Highly adaptable culture Process leadership Cost optimization “Go to India for cost; stay for quality” Valuable companies with ambition beyond outsourcing Top 4 companies worth US$50B showing astounding growth Good environment for start-up companies Recommendations for China Today: Learn by building an outsourcing industry (like India): Learn from Indian companies, build 2-3 large companies. Stimulate software companies with high-demand US customers Be willin