河南省居民消费对经济增长影响的实证分统计学毕业论文.doc

目 录 中英文摘要 正文 一 、引言 （一）研究背景与意义 （二）Summary： Consumer demand is the main power can stimulate economic growth. Along with market economy further perfecting, our country economy has made great achievements, total economic output achieved rapid development. In the transformation of economic growth mode period of economic growth, consumption is becoming increasingly important, especially since 1025, clear proposes to play the role of consumer to economic growth, especially the residents consumption, visible consumption in the national economy power increasingly prominent role, consumption has become the current drive economic growth and keep steady economic growth, study the key security relationship between consumption and economic growth has important practical significance. Taking henan province as an example, based on the contribution of urban and rural residents consumption in henan province, elastic analysis, and analyzed the cointegration analysis of henan province, find towns and rural residents consumption and henan GDP has a long-term equilibrium relationship, using exponential smoothing forecasting method to predict future five years of henan GDP and rural and urban residents consumption. And puts forward related Suggestions Key words：HouseHold Consumption ；economic growth；Contribution rate ；Cointegration Analysis 一、引言 （一）研究背景与意义 国民经济的发展意味着国民总值的提高，进而影响到人们收入，从而影响到居民的消费水平。尤其是在目前，国内出现了国富民弱的声音。十二五规划中指出要使居民收入的增长与经济的增长保持同步，甚至居民收入的增长要超过国民收入增长的幅度。河南省农村与城镇居民的消费也将随之发生变化，研究河南省城镇与农村居民消费的现状及未来发展趋势是非常必要的，可以大致得出其演变方向与规律，提出未来消费趋势，具有很强的现实意义。 （二）国内主要研究综述 孟秋菊（2008）主要从理论方面去论述，认为由于城乡居民消费差距太大，使得农民消费水平低下成为经济增长的主要羁绊；消费者非理性消费，导致经济增长波动较大，不利于经济的平稳发展。田卫民（2008）认为经济中存在最优的消费规模，原因是限制消费为代价的经济增长不仅无法实现社会福利最大化和居民效用最大化，而且也是不可持续的。消费的不足导致经济增长乏力，消费过度会导致投资不足从而阻碍经济增长。建立消费的内生增长模，求出最优值66.46%。刘东皇，孟范昆（2011）论述了金融危机对中国经济增长的影响，运用了VAR模型，对我国居民消费的经济增长效应进行了实证分析，提出扩大居民消费是应对金融危机的适宜举措。赵吉林（2009）通过理论分析，认为在中国经济增长面临出口大幅下降、外需持续萎缩的严峻形势，消费需求若难以继续扩大，则政府主导投资拉动的经济增长便缺乏后劲，经济仍有下滑的可能。当前扩大内需特别是居民消费便成为保增长的当务之急。并且从我国建国6