麦肯锡：Myths and Realities in China’s Semiconductor Industry.docVIP

麦肯锡：Myths and Realities in China’s Semiconductor Industry HH/0105079/SH-PD(2000)CONFIDENTIALMyths and Realities in China’s Semiconductor IndustryUS-Taiwan Business CouncilSeptember 15, 2003This report is solely for the use of client personnel. No part of it may be circulated, quoted, or reproduced for distribution outside the client organization without prior written approval from McKinsey amp; Company. This material was used by McKinsey amp; Company during an oral presentation; it is not a complete record of the discussion.HH/010509/SH-PD(2000)CHINA MYTHS AND REALITY China is the driving market for global semiconductor growth but this does not translate into a semiconductor industry (yet) Wave of government-incentedfab investments appears to have been overblown –Taiwan is unlikely to be replaced as the world’s foundry manufacturing center But China has a long-term strength in design given its strong local demand and deep pool of human resources China and Taiwan appear to have more potential to collaborate than to compete as their strengths are complementary1.taiwan-china-outlook4 HH/010509/SH-PD(2000)SEMICONDUCTOR CONSUMPTION IN CHINA WILL OUTPACE GLOBAL GROWTH TO CREATE THE THIRD LARGEST SEMICONDUCTOR MARKET IN THE WORLDChina semiconductor consumption’01-’06 CAGR%, USD BillionsPercent17$30.1bn4%12 China will continue to lead the region in electronic equipment 2612production growth, sustained by healthy domestic consumption and 100%= $13.9bnincreasing export 3027Others 4%32 China’s GDP growth and WTO entry Consumer electronics will bring about massive 19Communication 40infrastructure investment and, in 15Data processing 44turn, increase the country#039;s domestic information technology spendinlobal semi-conductor 9.6consumption 154244(USD billion)By 2006, China will become China as the third largest percentage of 11.0812.34semiconductor market in the global total (%)world, next to the U.S. and JapanSource: Dataquest2HH/010509/SH-PD(2000)NORTH ASIA WILL