建筑专业毕业设计外文翻译2.docVIP

Using Weibull Analysis for Evaluation of Cost and Schedule Performance Khaled M. Nassar1; Hordur G. Gunnarsson2; and Mohamed Y. Hegab, P.E.3 Large amounts of money are lost each year in the construction industry because of poor schedule and cost control. Few contractors specify and follow systematic schedule monitoring practices. Traditionally, the earned value method EVM is used to control and monitor schedule performance using the schedule and cost performance indices which compare the budgeted cost of work performed to what was originally scheduled or what is actually expended. This paper presents a statistical approach, namely Weibull analysis, to evaluate stochastically the schedule performance of construction or design projects. The approach can be used in conjunction with the EVM to enhance the evaluation and control of schedule performance. Weibull analysis is a common method for failure analysis and reliability engineering used in a wide range of applications. In this paper, the applicability of Weibull analysis for evaluating and comparing the reliability of the schedule performance of multiple projects is presented. The various steps in the analysis are discussed along with an example in which two projects are analyzed and compared. The authors conclude that Weibull analysis has several advantages and provides a relatively robust and effective method for construction managers to better control and monitor their projects. Construction projects are seldom “on-schedule” all the time. The amount of work performed on the project usually fluctuates from one period to the other. In fact, according to the “80 / 20” rule. suggested by the 18th Century economist, Pareto 80% of the effort will be expended during 20% of the project duration. This creates a significant problem in trying to monitor the actual performance of the project schedule and specifically trying to decide whether or not the project can finish on time., the reliability of the project schedule