white paper outline - defense technical information ….doc

COVER The Joint Operational Environment The World Through 2020 and Beyond United States Joint Forces Command August 2005 TABLE OF CONTENTS Introduction 1 The Importance of the Joint Operating Environment 1 Purpose 2 Research Process 2 Section 1 Joint Operating Environment Overview 4 A Look Ahead—The JOE Summary 4 JOE Constants 6 Key Assumptions 6 Future Geostrategic Landscape 7 National Power Synergy 7 Capabilities Framework 7 Strategic Defense Guidance 9 Types of Challenges 9 Section 2 Understanding the Critical Variables 11 Critical Variable Overview 11 The Critical 12 11 Physical Environment 12 Nature and Stability of the State 13 Sociological Demographics 13 Regional and Global Relationships 13 Culture 14 Military Capabilities 14 Information 14 Technology 15 External Organizations 15 National Will 15 Time 16 Economics 16 Applying the Critical Variables 16 Section 3 Shaping the Operational Environment 18 Social and Cultural Factors 18 Population Growth 19 Health 20 Wealth Distribution 20 Urbanization 20 Age Distribution 21 Migration 22 Crime 22 Culture 23 Training and Education 25 Ethnicity 26 Geopolitics and Governance 26 The Powerful 26 The Weak 27 Globalization 29 Regionalism 29 Information 30 Economics 30 Terrorism 31 Alliances and Coalitions. 31 Economics and Resources 31 Competition for Resources. 31 Impact of Technology 32 Impact of Globalization 33 Science, technology, and engineering 35 Biological Systems 37 Machines and Computers 37 Information, Knowledge, and Communications 38 Energy. 39 Environment 40 Military Trends and Developments 40 Space Technologies 41 Weapons of Mass Destruction/Effects 41 Information. 42 Homeland Security 42 Operational Tempo. 43 Camouflage, Cover, Concealment, Denial, and Deception. 43 Precision Capabilities 43 Systems Warfare. 44 State and Non-State Partnerships. 44 Global Access. 44 Impact of Regionalism. 45 Impact of Technology. 45 Impact of Military Trends. 46 Section 4 Impact on our National Military Strate