短期国际资本-广义货币供应量和经济波动.docVIP

短期国际资本\广义货币供应量与经济波动 （作者:___________单位: ___________邮码: ___________） 摘 要：本文构建起短期国际资本对实体经济影响的理论模型，并对短期国际资本、广义货币供应量和国民生产总值之间的关系进行实证研究。研究发现，短期国际资本影响实体经济的传导机制是：在短期内，短期国际资本流动显著引起广义货币供应量变化，广义货币供应量的变化又会显著导致国民生产总值出现波动。本文进一步结合脉冲响应函数和方差分解研究短期国际资本流动规模波动率与经济增长率之间的关系，发现短期国际资本流动规模波动率是经济增长率发生波动的单项Granger原因；经济增长率的波动中有约20%是由于短期国际资本流动规模波动率发生异动所致。。 　　关键词：短期国际资本流动;广义货币供应量;经济波动 　　Short-term International Capital, Broad Money Supply and Economic Growth 　　ZHOU Ting-zuo, ZHANG Yi-hao, LUN Xiao-bo 　　（School of Business, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093, China） 　　Abstract:In this paper, a theoretical model concerning the influence of Short-term International Capital flow on the economic growth has been built. In addition, empirical research on the interrelationship of Short-term International Capital flow，broad money supply and economic growth has been conducted. The research shows the transmission mechanism through which Short-term International Capital flow has an effect on economic growth: within a short period, Short-term International Capital flow greatly affects the scale of broad money supply, which subsequently leads to a significant fluctuation in GDP. Furthermore, with the help of impulse response function and variance decomposition, the author analyzes the relationship between volatility of the scale of Short-term International Capital flow and the economic growth rate. The study reveals that the volatility in the scale of Short-term International Capital flow is the 中国论文联盟整理granger reason for economic growth rate; About 20% of drastic fluctuations in the economic growth rate were due to abnormal volatility of the scale of Short-term International Capital flow. 　　Key words:short-term international capital; broad money supply; economic growth 　　 　　1 引言 　　 　　自2002年以来，随着境外短期国际资本的大规模持续涌入，我国国内相继发生了房地产市场泡沫、股市上涨、人民币升值、流动性过剩和通货膨胀。2007年美国次贷危机爆发并引发国际金融危机之后，全球金融机构的“去金融杠杠化”趋势强化，外部冲击下的国内经济形势剧烈演变，潜入的短期国际资本又出现逆转势头，与之伴随着的是国内货币政策困境、人民币汇率波动、股指大跌，以及经济增长放缓